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Refuelling an aircraft at the airport.
The conflict in the Middle East is unsettling travellers: Could kerosene become scarce—and might flights be cancelled? Prof. Benny Mantin of the University of Luxembourg explains the situation, including what this could mean for Luxembourg, with Findel as an international airport and Cargolux as a key air-cargo player.
Many people are currently wondering: Is my summer holiday flight safe – or could a kerosene shortage lead to cancellations?
Benny Mantin: In the short term, the risk that airlines will cancel flights on a large scale is low. Airports hold kerosene inventories that can bridge supply disruptions for several weeks, or even a few months. In parallel, airlines, airports and fuel suppliers are also looking for alternative suppliers to replace the supply gap. More likely than “no fuel at all” are higher prices reflected in surcharges. Airlines may also reduce frequencies on less profitable routes or retire older aircraft that consume a lot of fuel. It becomes critical if the disruption lasts for a long time and inventories fall sharply – and that cannot be predicted reliably at this point.
EU passenger rights
The European Commission has published guidance on how to deal with the impact of the Iran war on the EU’s transport and tourism sector. It stresses that EU passenger rights still apply if airlines cancel flights because kerosene prices are too high. A local fuel shortage, however, may be considered an “extraordinary circumstance”, in which case airlines may be exempt from paying compensation if they have to cancel services.
How realistic is it that Luxembourg or Europe could “run out of kerosene” if the conflict with Iran continues?
Benny Mantin: I consider a scenario in which Europe has no kerosene at all to be unlikely. The situation would more likely stabilise through demand adjustment: fewer flights and higher ticket prices. Europe also sources kerosene from multiple regions. Stakeholders are now trying to replace part of the shortfall from the Gulf with deliveries, for example from the United States or Nigeria. That eases the pressure, but it does not remove it entirely: jet-fuel production cannot simply be ramped up without limits. (Editor’s note: See the info box “How is kerosene produced?” below.) And if there were a broader fuel shortage, diesel would likely be prioritised over kerosene. But in Europe we are not at that point yet. Warning signs would be prolonged supply shortfalls and sharply rising prices.
Why does a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz matter so much for the global supply of oil and kerosene?
Benny Mantin: The Strait of Hormuz is a maritime chokepoint. Through this narrow passage, tankers transport large volumes of crude oil and refined products – finished fuels such as kerosene, diesel or gasoline. If flows are disrupted, not only crude oil is affected; part of the refined fuels available on the market is affected as well – including kerosene. When buyers have to switch to other sources, transport routes lengthen and costs rise, for instance through higher insurance premiums and risk surcharges for shipping. These effects propagate through the system as a chain reaction: more expensive fuel, fewer available volumes, and pressure on flight schedules and freight.
Share of global oil and kerosene trade passing through the Hormuz chokepoint
How much crude oil and how many refined products pass through the maritime chokepoint of Hormuz? Benny Mantin cites figures: “Data from IATA and the IEA suggest that 20% of the world’s aviation fuel and 25% of the oil transported by sea pass through the Strait of Hormuz. These are enormous shares. Europe is highly dependent on aviation fuel from this region: according to some data, about a quarter to a third of our aviation fuel comes from the Gulf region, while other estimates put the figure at three quarters. Most of the oil and oil products from this region, however, are destined for Asia (80%). IEA data also show how strongly some countries depend on oil from this region—for example Japan (77%) and Taiwan (63%).”
How does this affect the price and availability of kerosene in Europe in practical terms?
Benny Mantin: Kerosene is traded globally. If a large share of supply suddenly drops out, prices rise quickly – at the moment, the trading price is around 50% above the pre-war level, even though it has fallen since the late-April peaks during which it was trading at about twice the pre-war level. But kerosene is still available because of other suppliers, because inventories are being drawn on, and because demand has slightly adjusted downwards.
The higher prices also reach airports and airlines only gradually. Kerosene is often purchased well in advance or hedged. Those who bought or locked in prices before the spike are in a comparatively good position. Those who have to buy on short notice are paying high prices now. If the situation on the world market does not ease, the higher price will eventually affect everyone: supply contracts or hedges at pre-war prices will expire, and new contracts will reflect the changed market conditions.
Why airfares do not automatically double
When fuel prices surge during a crisis like the current one, that does not automatically translate one-to-one into airfares. Benny Mantin explains: “Fuel accounts for about one third of total costs. If the fuel price rises by 50%, the actual cost of a flight increases only by about one sixth (roughly 16%). Economic theory suggests, however, that airlines will not pass this increase on to customers in full. To use a comparison: a baker does not immediately double the price of a cake just because the price of eggs has doubled.
European airlines usually hedge around 80% of their fuel costs in advance, which further reduces the incentive to raise prices in the short term. Even so, travellers often see ticket prices rise immediately for strategic reasons: 1. Airlines’ hedging arrangements eventually expire, and it is better for them to start adjusting prices early. 2. It is an excellent tool for steering and influencing demand. In this way, airlines can ensure that the limited number of flights on offer are filled by passengers who really need to travel or are willing to pay a surcharge.”
What strategies are available to airlines?
Benny Mantin: We have already mentioned some measures: securing alternative sources of kerosene, cutting flight schedules, and deploying more fuel-efficient aircraft. Beyond that, airlines are lobbying for more flexibility – for example regarding fuel specifications. If European airlines were not required to use only Jet A-1 kerosene, but could also use Jet A, which is commonly used in the United States, that would open up additional sources of supply for them. Airlines are also calling for greater flexibility in CO₂ requirements and for forms of joint fuel procurement.
How is kerosene produced?
Kerosene is produced in oil refineries mainly through distillation: crude oil is heated, and its different components boil at different temperatures, which allows them to be separated in a distillation column. Kerosene is part of the so-called middle distillates—“mid-range” fractions between gasoline and diesel (roughly boiling between 150 and 250°C). It is then further treated and blended until it meets aviation fuel specifications (e.g., Jet A-1). How well this works also depends on the type of crude being processed and on how the refinery is configured. (Source: Wikipedia, “Kerosene”, section “Production”.)
More on the topic of oil in this article on science.lu: Erdöl ist nicht gleich Erdöl – nicht jedes lässt sich gleich gut verwerten
Alternatives to kerosene
Flying without kerosene is conceivable in the short term—but mainly on short regional routes with fewer than 20 passengers. On such routes, battery-powered aircraft could take over part of the traffic. For long-haul flights with many passengers, however, this is unrealistic for the foreseeable future, simply because the batteries required would be far too heavy. Hydrogen aircraft are being discussed as an alternative, but they would require new aircraft designs as well as complex safety and refuelling infrastructure. Another option for longer flights with more passengers is synthetic fuels (e-fuels), which could be used in today’s aircraft. Their production, however, is very energy-intensive—and will likely make flying more expensive.
More on this in our article on hydrogen: Protection du climat : quelles fonctions peut remplir l'hydrogène et quelles sont ses limites ?
Luxembourg is home to Cargolux. What impact would a prolonged jet-fuel shortage have on air freight?
Benny Mantin: A prolonged shortage would hit air freight primarily through costs. If fuel prices rise, air-freight prices rise as well. Some shipments can shift to sea or rail, but time-critical or sensitive goods in particular remain dependent on air capacity. And because many companies now operate with low inventories, air freight can become even more important during supply-chain disruptions to bridge bottlenecks. For Cargolux, that would mean stronger price signals, higher costs, and more pressure to deploy capacity where it is truly needed.
What does this debate tell us about the vulnerability of global supply chains?
Benny Mantin: It shows how strongly supply chains depend on a small number of critical nodes – and how quickly a shock can propagate. Disruptions do not affect “transport” alone, but may impact several building blocks of the firm: supply, operations, communication, finance and personnel. The decisive factor is therefore less whether an event occurs than how well companies are prepared. Those who understand their supply chains, assess risks and have response plans can adapt more quickly. Resilience is not a buzzword – it is a management task.
Final question: Should someone who is thinking about booking a holiday flight for the autumn hesitate?
Benny Mantin: Probably not. The basic rule – book early – still applies. Flights are very unlikely to be cancelled at short notice solely because of fuel shortages, because airlines adjust their plans early and only publish schedules they expect they can actually operate. The bigger uncertainty is price: if kerosene remains expensive, tickets and surcharges may rise. Anyone who wants to be on the safe side can choose flexible fares – or destinations from which they could get home by train or car if necessary.
Author: Hannes Schlender, scienceRELATIONS
Editor: Michèle Weber (FNR)
Infobox
Middle East Conflict Exposes Jet Fuel Supply Vulnerabilities. IATA, 6.3.2026
Europe replacing just 50pc of lost Mideast jet: IEA | Latest Market News
The Middle East and Global Energy Markets – Topics - IEA
Reliance on Middle East Oil and Gas Supplies by Country – Data Tools - IEA
EU fuel crisis measures must go further than business-as-usual guidance – Airlines for Europe
